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paragon

Forgeborn
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Forum Posts: 89
Member Since:
July 18, 2013
Offline
September 15, 2013
4:13 pm
1

I ran some monte carlo simulations today to answer some questions I had.  These simulations just run 100,000 sample games and tally the results.  The numbers are just averages … I'm probably going to work on the variance data later.

The first data set I calculated was how many level 2 and level 3 cards on average you can play.  In PL2 you average close to 5 level two cards and 3 level one cards.  In PL3 you average 3 level three cards, 3 level two cards, and 2 level one cards.

The second data set I calculated was how much Everflame Phoenix impacted the number of level 2 and 3 cards you played. Here are the assumptions I made to create this simulation.  Play Phoenix at every opportunity PL1 (also ran another simulation where there is no priority on playing phoenix PL1).  Only play Phoenix level two on turns x.4.  I didn't consider rolling him out turn x.3 because of how many static shocks, epidemics, and shaper triggers exist in the top tournament decks, but I will probably try to model that somehow in the future.  If you play the Phoenix level two on turn x.4 it counts as a level three card.  The simplification of the results have you playing about one extra level 1 card in PL2 and averaging about one 2.4 phoenix transformation every three games. 

  Normal    
  L1s Played L2s Played L3s Played
PL1 8 0 0
PL2 3.12 4.88 0
PL3 1.83 3.02 3.15
PL4 1.25 1.93 4.81
       
  With Phoenix max priority
  L1s Played L2s Played L3s Played
PL1 8 0 0
PL2 3.92 3.75 0.33
PL3 2.15 2.86 2.99
PL4 1.39 1.89 4.73
       
  With Phoenix no priority except x.4
  L1s Played L2s Played L3s Played
PL1 8 0 0
PL2 3.55 4.27 1.84
PL3 2.05 2.85 3.09
PL4 1.38 1.85 4.78

Here's a pastebin of my code: http://pastebin.com/a2jXen7P.  I haven't really done much coding and this is literally the first time I've tried using Python so take that for what it is.  I spot checked the results as I was writing the simulation and everything looked good to me, but there could be errors in there.  Would gladly accept any help to improve the data or my programming. :)

I have the program set up so you can place priorities on which cards you level, so I'm probably going to look at stuff like how often you draw no level 3s of a card if you level it at every opportunity.

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